Confidence is part of the data: a low-confidence range is an honest answer, a precise-looking number without a basis is not.
Legendarymedium confidence
~18-19% of packs, i.e. roughly 4-5 per 24-pack box (Reign of Jafar 18.19%/pack, Fabled 19.49%/pack)
Basis: Community large-sample self-report polls by u/Narzghal on r/Lorcana (479+ responses for Reign of Jafar, 700+ for Fabled), as compiled by The Gamers Lodge source →
Single global English print run; no JP/EN split
Enchantedmedium confidence
Roughly 1 per 96-100 packs on average — ≥1 Enchanted in ~22% of boxes and ~62-64% of 4-box cases (Reign of Jafar: box 22.43%, case 63.79%; Fabled: box 21.59%, case 62.20%). So most boxes contain none; a case yields about one on average
Basis: Community poll data (u/Narzghal trackers via The Gamers Lodge); the box/case/trove-level figures are internally consistent at ~1% per pack. Note: single-pack self-reports from the same polls run higher (1.2-2%/pack), almost certainly selection bias — trust the product-level numbers source →
Aggregators report the rate as roughly stable from Set 1 through Set 8+
Epic (2025+)low confidence
DISPUTED: estimates range from ~1 in 16 packs (~1.5 per box) to ~1 in 100 packs (~1 per case). Sources conflict on both rate and which slot Epics occupy (rare slots vs foil slot); no large-sample tracker has settled it
Basis: Aggregator estimate (lorcanacollectors.com: '1 in every 16 packs') vs fan estimate reported by Beckett ('one in every 100 packs'). Neither cites sample data — treat as a wide range, not a number source →
Iconic (2025+)low confidence
Extremely rare: roughly 1 per 15+ cases (~1 in 1,400-1,500 packs); community explicitly notes 'there haven't been consistent enough results to know the percentages'
Basis: Aggregator estimate (lorcanacollectors: '1 in ~1,500 packs') + anecdotal reports compiled by Beckett ('often requiring 15+ cases to see just one'). Small sample by construction (2 cards per set) — order-of-magnitude only source →
Super Rarelow confidence
~1 per 2-3 packs (in the two rare-or-higher slots)
Basis: Aggregator editorial synthesis (lorcanacollectors.com), no disclosed methodology source →