Confidence is part of the data: a low-confidence range is an honest answer, a precise-looking number without a basis is not.
SRlow confidence
~7-9 per EN 24-pack box (~1 per 3 packs)
Basis: aggregator guides citing community box data (cardgamer ~8/box, tcgtalk ~8/box); no published sample sizes — verifier note: two aggregators, no disclosed sample sizes source →
JP box: ~3-6 SR observed (toreca-begin survey says 3-4; JP box is half the cards of an EN box)
SEC (base)low confidence
~0.5-1 per EN box; ~5-8 per 12-box EN case
Basis: aggregator estimates (cardgamer ~1/box; archivedrops ~1 per 2 boxes) plus one documented EN OP-16 case with 5 SEC; sources genuinely disagree at the 2x level source →
JP: 0-1 per box observed; JP OP-16 SEC *parallel* estimated ~1 per 13 boxes (gamepedia)
Alt-art parallels overall (R/SR para)medium confidence
~2 per EN box (~1 per 12 packs); JP OP-16: SR-parallel ~1 per 2.8 boxes, R-parallel ~1 per 4 boxes
Basis: EN: aggregator estimate (cardgamer, tcgtalk); JP: gamepedia community aggregate for OP-16, sample size undisclosed source →
JP carton (12 boxes) yields ~8 combined SEC/SR/R parallels (gamepedia)
Leader parallellow confidence
~1 per 6 boxes JP OP-16 (~2 per carton); EN similar order — 3 alt-art leaders in the one documented EN OP-16 case
Basis: JP: gamepedia community aggregate; EN: single documented case opening (n=1) source →
JP figure is per 144-card box; EN per 288-card box, so per-card the EN rate is thinner if per-box rates match
SP (Special card)low confidence
roughly 1-2 per 12-box case, set-dependent (JP OP-16 estimate: ~1 per 9 boxes; historically OP-05 EN ran ~2-3 per case, OP-07 ~1 per case)
Basis: JP: gamepedia community aggregate; EN: aggregator claims of community case breaks; one documented EN OP-16 case had an anomalous 5 SP which the source itself flags as unrepresentative source →
set-to-set variation is documented and real; single-case data is noise
Manga Rare / Comic Parallellow confidence
roughly 1 per 2-6 cases EN (estimates vary that widely between sources); JP OP-16: ~1 per 100 boxes (~1 per 8 cartons); older JP rule-of-thumb: ~1 per 6 cartons (72 boxes)
Basis: community estimates and aggregator ranges only — archivedrops says '1 per 3-4 cases', tcgtalk '1 per 2-6 cases', gamepedia 0.99%/box for OP-16; the documented EN OP-16 case pulled zero. Nobody has a large clean sample source →
OP-16 has 3 MRs (the Admirals) + 1 event MR, so hitting a SPECIFIC one is ~3x harder than hitting any
Ultra-chase manga class (gold-background / 'red manga', e.g. OP-13)low confidence
roughly 1 per 30-40 cartons (~1 per 360-480 JP boxes); a floating '0.07%' figure exists but with no stated basis
Basis: JP community guesswork aggregated by gamepedia-type sites; explicitly not official, tiny effective sample source →
JP-observed; EN equivalence unverified
TR (Treasure Rare)low confidence
EN: roughly 1 per 12-box case, sometimes rarer (the one documented EN OP-16 case pulled exactly 1); JP OP-16: ~1 per 75 boxes (~1 per 6 cartons) — notably rarer than the EN rule-of-thumb
Basis: EN: aggregator consensus + single documented case; JP: gamepedia community aggregate. The 6x JP/EN gap may be real (JP TR just debuted in OP-16) or method noise — unresolved source →
TR exists only in non-Japanese editions OP-06→OP-15 (EN/CN/FR, each with different TR cards) (1 per set, always a reprint with exclusive art); OP-16 is the first JP TR. Different languages get different TR cards
Gold / character DON!!low confidence
~1 per 13 boxes JP OP-16 (~1 per carton); 1 in the documented EN OP-16 case
Basis: gamepedia community aggregate (JP) + single EN case source →
plain alt-art DON!! is far more common (~1 per box per cardgamer)
R (Rare)medium confidence
~1 per EN pack (~24 per box); JP ~7-8 per 24-pack box (1 per ~3 packs)
Basis: aggregator guides + JP opening survey source →
difference is just pack size (12 vs 6 cards)