Snapshot as of 2026-07-23 · every rate carries its basis — estimates are estimates
Does the publisher tell you the odds?
No. TPCi has never published pull rates or 'approximate odds' for physical English products — no odds printed on packs, boxes, or product pages (unlike Topps/Panini sports products). Official communication covers pack STRUCTURE only (e.g. the 2023 SV announcement of 3 guaranteed foils per pack). Every circulating rate is community-measured, with TCGplayer's in-house multi-thousand-pack openings the de-facto standard. (Digital is different: the TCG Pocket app publishes exact in-app offering rates because app-store rules require it — a separate product whose figures say nothing about physical packs.)
Pokémon TCG — International/English (Scarlet & Violet era 2023–mid-2025, Mega Evolution era Sept 2025–present)
Guaranteed slots: Since SV (2023, official TPCi announcement): every pack is 4 commons / 3 uncommons / 2 reverse-holo-slot cards / 1 holo Rare-or-better, i.e. at least 3 foils per pack; all Rare+ cards are holo. Hits (IR/SIR/UR/gold) replace the reverse or rare slots. There is NO official or printed per-box guarantee on EN boxes.
Elite Trainer Box = 9 packs + promo + accessories. Booster bundle = 6 packs. Mega era added an 'Enhanced Booster' product line (36-pack display + promo). Special sets (e.g. Prismatic Evolutions) sell only in ETBs/bundles/tins — no standard booster box.
Confidence is part of the data: a low-confidence range is an honest answer, a precise-looking number without a basis is not.
~1 in 5 packs (~7 per 36-pack box)
Basis: Community large-sample box data: TCGplayer Authentication Center openings, 5,000 packs each for Mega Evolution (Sep 2025) and Phantasmal Flames (Nov 2025) source →
EN print; JP equivalent (RR) runs richer per pack in high-class sets
~1 in 12 packs (~3 per box)
Basis: TCGplayer 5,000-pack samples (Mega Evolution, Phantasmal Flames); specific UR ~1 in 211 packs source →
~1 in 9 packs (~4 per box); a SPECIFIC IR ~1 in 118 packs
Basis: TCGplayer 5,000-pack samples; stable across 2025 sets source →
Set-dependent: ~1 in 101 packs (Mega Evolution) to ~1 in 80 (Phantasmal Flames) — i.e. roughly 1 SIR per 2–3 booster boxes; a SPECIFIC SIR ~1 in 400+ packs. Outlier: Prismatic Evolutions ~1 in 45 packs (~0.8/36 packs)
Basis: TCGplayer samples: 5,000 packs (Mega Evo, Phantasmal), 1,200 packs (Prismatic — smaller sample, wider error bars) source →
Beware: model-based aggregators (e.g. rateTCG) publish very different Prismatic numbers (~1 in 3 packs) that contradict the measured sample — do not use modeled figures
Mega era ('Mega Hyper Rare'): ~1 in 1,260 packs ≈ 1 per 35 boxes ≈ 1 per ~6 cases — the scarcest modern EN tier. SV-era golds were far more common, e.g. Prismatic Hyper Rare ~1 in 180 packs (~1 per 5 boxes-worth of packs)
Basis: TCGplayer 5,000-pack samples (Mega era); TCGplayer 1,200-pack sample (Prismatic) source →
~20–25% chance (typical 2025–26 set at 1/80–1/101); Prismatic Evolutions ~1 in 4–5 ETBs (~22–25%) at its 1/36–1/45 rate
Basis: Arithmetic derived from TCGplayer measured rates (Rippr and others show the math); not directly measured per-ETB source →
Roughly 1 IR per ETB on average (9 packs × ~1/9)
Basis: Derived from TCGplayer per-pack rate; aggregator framing
Demigod packs (EN 151 only)
English Scarlet & Violet–151 packs found loaded with 3 secret rares (IR/SIR evolution lines) — a weaker analog of the JP god pack; fans dubbed them 'demigod packs'
Approximate frequency: Unknown — confirmed sightings only; one community guide floats ~1 in 1,300 packs for a demigod pack, basis unclear. Anecdote-level, very low confidence
Sets: Scarlet & Violet–151 (MEW, 2023) — the notable international exception; standard EN expansions have NO god-pack mechanic
source →Prismatic Evolutions Poké Ball / Master Ball reverse patterns
Special reverse-holo patterns replacing the normal reverse slot
Approximate frequency: Poké Ball pattern ~1 in 3 packs; Master Ball pattern ~1 in 20 packs (TCGplayer 1,200-pack sample — community large-sample, medium confidence)
Sets: Prismatic Evolutions (SV8.5, Jan 2025)
source →Pokémon TCG — Japan (SV era → Mega era 2025–2026)
Guaranteed slots: Community-observed box floors (NOT printed promises): a sealed regular JP box reliably yields ≥1 SR-or-better + ~3 AR + several RR (+1 ACE SPEC in SV-era sets; Mega-era sets add an item-card SR slot, and MEGA Dream ex adds 1 guaranteed MA per box). One retailer notes these are probabilistic slot upgrades, not fixed positions.
JP boxes' 'guarantees' come from thousands of consistent community openings; The Pokémon Company prints pack contents (card count) but no probabilities. JP high-class boxes (10 packs) are the god-pack products.
Confidence is part of the data: a low-confidence range is an honest answer, a precise-looking number without a basis is not.
≥1 per sealed box (floor); ~1 in 30 packs baseline
Basis: Community-observed pattern across thousands of box openings (multiple JP-import retailers agree); not officially confirmed source →
JP only — EN boxes have no equivalent observed floor
~3 per box (sources range 2–4), ≈1 in 10 packs
Basis: Community consensus across retailer guides (Mirai, Trainer Court, TC Game) source →
Roughly 1 per 1–3 boxes; sources disagree noticeably (some guides claim more)
Basis: Aggregator/retailer estimates, no published sample sizes — treat as directional source →
~0.15 per box (≈1 per 6–7 boxes); new Mega-era MUR ~0.05 per box (≈1 per 20 boxes)
Basis: Single retailer estimate surfaced in search (Samurai Sword Tokyo); no sample size given source →
Per pack: RR ~9/10, AR ~3/10, ACE SPEC ~1/10, SR-or-better ~1/10 (≈1 per box guaranteed); SAR ~1 in 30+ packs (≈1 per 3 boxes)
Basis: Community pull-rate compilation (PokéPatch); box floor claim consistent across retailers source →
SAR ~1 in 27 packs; guaranteed per box: 1 MA + 1 item SR + 3 AR + ~9 RR; no SAR guaranteed per box
Basis: Early retailer/community data (Samurai Sword Tokyo, Trainer Court, card-binder) — weeks-old set, small samples source →
GOD PACKS
A pack where every slot is a hit (AR-or-better, multiple SAR — e.g. Terastal Fest: 8–9 Eeveelution SARs; MEGA Dream: 1 AR + 5 MA + 4 SAR; VSTAR Universe: 9 AR or 5 AR + 5 SAR). Japan-only mechanic in specialty/high-class sets.
Approximate frequency: No official figures have ever existed — TPC/Creatures has never confirmed god packs or their odds. Community estimates vary widely by set AND by source: general expert guess ~1 in 600 packs (SNKRDUNK); 'ranges 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,000+' (community guides); one aggregator claims ~1 in 2,000 average. Per-set community-tracking figures: Shiny Treasure ex ~1 in 260 packs; VSTAR Universe ~1 per case (~1 in 200–250 packs per one guide); MEGA Dream ex early estimate 1 in 300–600 packs, i.e. very roughly 1 per several cases. ALL of these are low confidence — the honest consumer statement is 'somewhere between 1 in ~250 and 1 in ~2,000 packs depending on set; expect zero when buying a box.'
Sets: Tag All Stars SM12a (first, 2019), Shiny Star V S4a, VMAX Climax S8b, VSTAR Universe S12a, Pokémon 151 SV2a, Shiny Treasure ex SV4a, Terastal Fest ex SV8a, Black Bolt SV11B / White Flare SV11W (2025), MEGA Dream ex M2a (Nov 2025). NOT in regular JP expansions and NOT in standard international sets.
source →Demigod packs (JP)
Reduced-tier loaded packs: Terastal Fest ex has a documented lower variant (reverse holos + 3 Eeveelution SARs) below its full 9-SAR god pack; 151 also had lesser loaded variants
Approximate frequency: Unknown; one community guide floats ~1 in 1,300 packs for a 151 demigod pack — basis unclear, very low confidence. TikTok-sourced claims of '1 in 10,000' for full Terastal god packs are anecdotes, not statistics.
Sets: Terastal Fest ex SV8a (documented); Pokémon 151 SV2a
source →Rates drift between sets, print waves, and regions; where our sources disagreed we kept the disagreement visible instead of averaging it away. Nothing on this page is investment or purchase advice — it exists so you know what a box is before you buy one.
Machine-readable twin: /api/v1/pulls · snapshot 2026-07-23