Snapshot as of 2026-07-23 · every rate carries its basis — estimates are estimates
Does the publisher tell you the odds?
Essentially no. Konami does not print pull odds on TCG or OCG packs, boxes, or product pages — verified directly on the official Alliance Insight pages (US + EU), which list rarity counts ('10 Secret Rares, 14 Ultra Rares...') but contain zero ratio language. This is unlike Pokemon-era odds-on-pack practice and has been Konami's consistent TCG posture historically. Two partial exceptions: (1) official social-media marketing occasionally states approximate ratios for collector products — e.g., the official @YuGiOh_TCG post giving 'approx. 1-in-4 packs' for Platinum Secret Rare in Rarity Collection II (May 2024) — and official copy sometimes states per-pack guarantees ('a guaranteed luxury Secret Rare in every pack', Quarter Century Stampede); (2) OCG box collation is so rigid that per-box foil counts (6 Super / 3 Ultra / 2 Secret / 1 Ultimate per 30-pack box) function as de facto known 'official-ish' quantities — but they are community-documented, never published as probabilities by Konami.
Yu-Gi-Oh! (TCG international / OCG Japan-Asia)
Guaranteed slots: TCG: every pack's 9th card is at least Super Rare; no per-box printed guarantees. OCG: every pack guarantees 1 R-or-higher; box collation is near-deterministic — a 30-pack box reliably yields ~12-13 foils: ~6 Super, ~3 Ultra, ~2 Secret, ~1 Ultimate(relief), plus 0-1 top-chase card (Holo/25th Secret era-dependent). OCG 1st-print boxes typically include a +1 bonus pack.
The two games differ fundamentally: TCG rarity is probabilistic per-pack collation across a 24-pack box; OCG uses rigid per-box collation so JP players treat per-box foil counts as de facto known. Special/collector sets differ again: TCG Rarity Collection sets are all-foil 9-card packs (RA01/RA02) or 5-card packs (Rarity Collection 5, Apr 2026: 4 main-pool foils + 1 guaranteed variant-art card from a separate pool); Quarter Century Bonanza/Stampede used 5-card packs with 'a guaranteed luxury Secret Rare in every pack' (official Konami language). Some 2025 TCG side sets (e.g. Justice Hunters, Aug 2025) use a Deck-Build-style structure: 60-card set, Rare base, Collector's Rare + Starlight chase, sold in mini-boxes — not the core-booster pattern.
Confidence is part of the data: a low-confidence range is an honest answer, a precise-looking number without a basis is not.
1 per pack (9th card), i.e. 24 foils per box
Basis: Long-documented collation on fan wikis (standard since Breakers of Shadow, 2016) — community consensus, not official print source →
TCG (INTL) only; OCG guarantees 1 R-or-better per 5-card pack instead
~1 in 6 packs → ~3-4 per 24-pack box
Basis: Fan-wiki collation figure (1:6 for the foil slot) corroborated by 2026 community box-opening data (tcgtalk, 10+ box sample: '~1 in 6, 3-4 per box') source →
TCG. OCG boxes yield ~3 Ultras per 30-pack box by rigid collation (higher confidence there)
~1 in 12 packs → ~2 per box (occasionally 3)
Basis: Fan-wiki collation figure (1:12 foil slot) + community box data for Blazing Dominion 2026 (~2 per box); Konami publishes nothing source →
TCG. OCG: 2 Secrets per 30-pack box, near-deterministic (community-documented collation, medium-high confidence)
Era-dependent: classic era (2019-2022) roughly 1 per 2 cases (~0.5 per 12-box case, i.e. 1 per ~24 boxes); 'about 1 per case' is the commonly repeated community shorthand; recent sets appear notably better — one 2026 community sample (Blazing Dominion, 10+ boxes) claims ~1 per 3 boxes
Basis: Cardmarket box-math analysis for Phantom Rage ('0.5 starlight rare cards per case... an average of one per two cases') = aggregator estimate from community samples; the 1-per-3-boxes figure is a small community sneak-peek sample (tcgtalk) and should be treated as low confidence. Internet claims range as wide as '1 in 120 boxes' (content-farm, unreliable). No official figure exists.
TCG-exclusive rarity (introduced Rising Rampage, 2019). OCG's equivalent top chase is Holographic Rare, which pulls at ~2 per 24-box carton
No large public EN sample located; community anecdotes cluster around 'roughly 1 per 4-6 boxes' for QCSR-era core sets, with the set's QCSR-only chase card far rarer (multiple cases). Do not treat any specific EN number as established.
Basis: Anecdote / community chatter only — flagged explicitly as such; Konami's official Alliance Insight pages list QCSR availability (24 cards + 1 QCSR-only) but zero odds source →
TCG. Officially wound down: Konami states Quarter Century Stampede and Alliance Insight (spring 2025) 'will be among the final releases to include Quarter Century Secret Rares'
Conflicting JP community measurements: carton-level tracking for Rage of the Abyss reports ~10 QCSRs per 24-box carton (~1 per 2-3 boxes, varying ±2 depending on memorial secrets), while other JP blogs cite 'roughly 1 per 12 boxes' for basic packs of the era; special memorial QCSRs are much rarer (may not appear in a full carton)
Basis: JP community carton measurements (ameblo carton-ratio tracker) vs JP blog estimates — genuinely unresolved spread, likely product-dependent and confounded by which QCSR subset is being counted source →
OCG. In JP Rarity Collection (レアコレ) sets, 25thシク was effectively guaranteed 1 per box per JP community verification — a different product class from basic packs
~2 per 24-box carton (~1 per 12 boxes)
Basis: JP community carton-level measurement (community data, explicitly not official) source →
OCG only — this rarity does not exist in TCG core boosters
OCG: ~1 per 30-pack box (rigid collation, since the Duelist Nexus 2023 restructure). TCG: revived in core sets around Rage of the Abyss (Oct 2024) as a variant of Ultra Rares; no reliable EN per-box rate located — community anecdotes only
Basis: OCG: community-documented stable box collation (yugioh-starter.com per-box tables: Super 6 / Ultra 3 / Secret 2 / Ultimate 1). TCG: rarity presence confirmed via Yugipedia set pages; rate is anecdote-level source →
OCG figure medium-high confidence; TCG figure not established
Approx. 1 in 4 packs in Rarity Collection II (two chances per 9-card all-foil pack) — an OFFICIAL Konami figure, unusually
Basis: Official publisher statement: Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG X/Twitter post, May 2024: 'Each extra-large, 9-card, all-foil pack has TWO different chances at this rarity (approx. 1-in-4 packs)' source →
TCG collector products only (RA01/RA02, QC Bonanza/Stampede, Rarity Collection 5); rate is per that product, not core boosters
Starlight Rare
TCG-exclusive ultra-chase rarity (sparkle-foil over whole card); typically ~4-10 cards per core set as alternate versions of key Secrets/Ultras
Approximate frequency: Historically ~1 per 1-2 cases (12-24 boxes) — aggregator/community estimate; recent 2025-2026 community samples suggest substantially better (~1 per 3 boxes claimed for Blazing Dominion from a 10+ box community sample; small sample, low confidence). Replaces an Ultra/Secret slot without reducing normal Secret yield.
Sets: TCG core boosters since Rising Rampage (2019), continuing through 2025-2026 sets (Alliance Insight, Justice Hunters, Blazing Dominion) and Rarity Collection sets
Quarter Century Secret Rare (25th-anniversary chase)
Champagne-gold speckled name + 25th-anniversary watermark; introduced April 2023 (TCG: Legendary Collection 25th Anniversary Edition), officially replacing Prismatic Secret Rare; featured across most OCG+TCG products 2023-2025
Approximate frequency: Core boosters: OCG carton data ~10 per 24 boxes (Rage of the Abyss) vs '~1 per 12 boxes' cited by other JP sources — unresolved, low confidence; TCG EN rate anecdotal (~1 per several boxes). Konami officially announced the rarity's retirement: Stampede + Alliance Insight 'among the final releases' with QCSRs.
Sets: TCG core boosters Duelist Nexus (2023) through Alliance Insight (May 2025); OCG basic packs Oct 2023 - Jan 2025; guaranteed 1/box in JP Rarity Collection; guaranteed-adjacent density in QC Bonanza/Stampede (5-card packs, 'guaranteed luxury Secret Rare in every pack', official)
source →Ultimate Rare revival (25th-anniversary era)
Embossed 'relief' rarity returned after long absence — OCG core sets carry Ultimate versions of Ultras since Duelist Nexus (2023); TCG core sets since ~Rage of the Abyss (2024); 25th Anniversary Rarity Collection introduced 'Prismatic'-style Ultimate Rares (raised 3D varnish) to TCG
Approximate frequency: OCG: ~1 per 30-pack box (community-documented rigid collation, medium-high confidence). TCG: no established rate (anecdote only).
Sets: OCG basic packs 2023→present (~1 per box, collation); TCG core sets 2024→present; Prismatic Ultimate in RA collector sets incl. Rarity Collection 5 (Apr 2026)
source →Holographic Rare (OCG)
OCG's traditional top parallel (holographic cover-card treatment); has no TCG core-booster equivalent
Approximate frequency: ~2 per 24-box carton (~1 per 12 boxes) — JP community carton measurement, medium confidence
Sets: OCG basic packs, ongoing
source →Post-anniversary collector rarities (2025-2026)
After QCSR retirement, TCG chase structure = Starlight (core sets) + Platinum Secret / Prismatic Ultimate / Collector's Rare (collector sets); Rarity Collection 5 (Apr 2026) adds a guaranteed variant-art 5th-card slot per all-foil pack
Approximate frequency: Rarity Collection 5: 1 variant-art card guaranteed per pack (official product structure); high-end upgrade odds not published for RA05 — the RA02 official 'approx 1-in-4 packs' Platinum figure is the only published reference point
Sets: Justice Hunters (2025, Collector's Rare + Starlight), Blazing Dominion (2026, Starlight top chase), Rarity Collection 5 (2026)
source →Rates drift between sets, print waves, and regions; where our sources disagreed we kept the disagreement visible instead of averaging it away. Nothing on this page is investment or purchase advice — it exists so you know what a box is before you buy one.
Machine-readable twin: /api/v1/pulls · snapshot 2026-07-23